Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama Predictions & AI Betting Tips

Bahia enter this Serie A encounter sitting 5th in the standings with 32 points, actively pursuing European qualification places. Hosting a struggling Vasco DA Gama side ranked 18th in the relegation zone, Bahia boast strong home metrics, remaining unbeaten in 9 of their 11 fixtures at Arena Fonte Nova (4W-5D-2L) with 17 goals scored and 11 conceded. However, Bahia have drawn their last three consecutive matches (0-0, 1-1, 1-1), highlighting a recent trend toward competitive parity despite controlling periods of play.

Season Insights

Data calculated from all season matches

Bahia

VS

Vasco DA Gama

10/21

Over 2.5 Goals

10/20

13/21

Both Teams Scored

14/20

16/21

Under 3.5 Goals

14/20

7/21

Scored First

5/20

6/21

Clean Sheet

1/20

2/21

Failed to Score

5/20

15/21

Under 4.5 Cards

17/20

2.4

Avg Cards/Match

2

Vasco DA Gama arrive under severe pressure, winless in their last five league outings (1D-4L) and holding a dismal away record of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses across 9 trips, conceding 1.9 goals per away game. Offensively, Vasco generate respectable shot numbers (17.88 shots per match in measured recent fixtures), yet severe defensive fragility—conceding first in 85% of their matches (11 of 20)—continues to hamper their survival campaign.

From a market perspective, Bahia's consistent scoring record at home (100% scoring rate, 1.5 GF/match) aligns directly against Vasco's porous away defense (0 clean sheets in 9 road games). First-half goal trends are particularly pronounced for both clubs (90% 1H goal rate for Bahia, 80% for Vasco). Furthermore, measured match data indicates substantial volume in secondary markets, with high corner generation (combined 10.48 match average) and elevated overall shot output (32.59 shots combined per match).

The primary risks center around squad absences for Bahia—notably attacker Erick Pulga (3Y cards) and midfielder Caio Alexandre—and Bahia's high frequency of draws this season (8 overall). Nonetheless, the statistical profile points toward a controlled home performance with sustained attacking pressure.