Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia Predictions & AI Betting Tips

Chapecoense-sc hosts Bahia in a Serie A matchup defined by a massive gap in overall team quality and form. Chapecoense sits rooted to the bottom of the table in 20th place with just 1 win from 21 matches (1W 7D 13L) and a severe -23 goal differential. They face 6th-placed Bahia (8W 9D 5L), who are actively contending for continental qualification and enter this fixture unbeaten in their last 5 matches. Chapecoense enters under heavy pressure with high squad injury attrition, while Bahia holds both motivational and structural edges.

Insights da Temporada

Dados calculados de todos os jogos da temporada

Chapecoense-sc

VS

Bahia

15/25

Over 2.5 Gols

14/26

15/25

Ambas as Equipes Marcaram

15/26

16/25

Under 3.5 Gols

18/26

3/25

Marcou Primeiro

10/26

2/25

Jogo Sem Sofrer Gol

8/26

8/25

Sem Marcar

3/26

19/25

Under 4.5 Cartões

18/26

2.3

Méd. Cartões/Jogo

2.4

From a tactical and efficiency standpoint, Chapecoense's defensive unit has collapsed, conceding 2.05 goals per match overall and an alarming 2.4 goals per match at home (24 goals conceded in 10 home games). Their measured recent stats highlight an defensive leak with an xGA of 1.42 and actual 2.13 goals conceded per game over their last 8 matches. Conversely, Bahia generates far greater territorial dominance and offensive output, averaging 15.14 shots per match and 1.31 xG in their recent outing sample while limiting opponents to 0.8 xGA.

Statistically, key micro-markets present very clear backing. Chapecoense has failed to score first in 100% of recorded games this season (0% ScoredFirst rate), consistently conceding early control to opponents. Bahia defeated Chapecoense 2-0 comfortably in their meeting just one month ago. Additionally, measured corners reflect dynamic wide play with both teams combining for an average of ~10.8 total corners per match in recent fixtures. Discipline is also expected to intensify as Chapecoense battles survival, where combined cards average 4.56 per match.

Main uncertainties revolve around Bahia's high frequency of draws away from home (3 draws in 10 away trips, along with 4 consecutive draws in recent league games). However, facing the league's weakest home defense provides Bahia the ideal setting to secure a full three points.